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In 2025, the Chinese baijiu industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, facing challenges such as shrinking competition, declining prices, and increasing inventory pressure. Amidst this, new growth opportunities are being explored, with low-alcohol baijiu emerging as a hot topic. Driven by the rise of Generation Z as the dominant consumer group, low-alcohol baijiu has become the preferred choice for those seeking a lighter drinking experience. This trend, along with the rapid development of low-alcohol baijiu, suggests that it may be entering its golden age. But is this truly the case? Can low-alcohol baijiu become a key driver of growth in the Chinese baijiu market during this period of contraction? Let’s delve deeper into the evolution and prospects of low-alcohol baijiu.

The Development of Low-Alcohol Baijiu

Low-alcohol baijiu, typically defined as having an alcohol content below 40%, has evolved alongside advancements in brewing technology, shifting consumer preferences, and policy directives. In the early years of the People’s Republic of China, grain shortages led to policies promoting lower-alcohol baijiu to conserve resources. By 1989, national standards categorized baijiu into high-alcohol (≥54%), reduced-alcohol (40%–54%), and low-alcohol (<40%) varieties, standardizing the industry. However, after 2000, as health consciousness grew, 42%–53% baijiu became mainstream, while low-alcohol variants stagnated. Traditional consumers favored higher-alcohol options, such as 53% for sauce- and light-aroma baijiu and 52% for strong-aroma baijiu.

Post-2010, technological innovations enabled the industry to improve the quality of low-alcohol baijiu. For instance, in 2015, Jiangnan University’s "microencapsulation technology" enhanced the flavor retention of 30% baijiu to 85%. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye also began using AI blending platforms to design low-alcohol products.

Market Performance

Low-alcohol baijiu has seen rapid growth since 2020. Its market size surged from ￥20 billion in 2020 to ￥57 billion in 2024, with projections reaching ￥74.2 billion in 2025—a 30% compound annual growth rate, far exceeding the industry average. By 2024, low-alcohol baijiu accounted for over 25% of total production, with some regional markets seeing 50% shares for products like 38% Guojiao 1573.

This growth is fueled by younger consumers. Data shows that 76.4% of low-alcohol baijiu drinkers are under 40, with 41% aged 18–26. Policy support, such as Sichuan’s 2023 subsidies for core technologies, and international appeal due to milder flavors and lower tax barriers further boost the market.

Future Considerations

Despite its rapid rise, low-alcohol baijiu may not sustain long-term industry growth. Historically, higher-alcohol baijiu has remained the choice for seasoned drinkers, as it ages better and gains value over time. Low-alcohol variants risk diluting baijiu’s premium image and could make the category vulnerable to competition from wines, beers, and spirits like whiskey or vodka.

Moreover, while low-alcohol baijiu offers higher margins, it does little to address the industry’s massive inventory or utilize peak production capacity. Unlike the mid-20th century, grain supply is no longer a pressing concern, reducing the strategic need for low-alcohol baijiu.

Conclusion

While low-alcohol baijiu is thriving, the industry’s long-term vitality likely depends on high-alcohol products. To mitigate risks, companies should focus on exporting low-alcohol baijiu, using it to cultivate international tastes for traditional baijiu. This approach could balance innovation with the preservation of baijiu’s core value.